Understanding the Effect of Climate Change and Productivity Factors on Maize Production in Nigeria
ARDL Approach
Main Article Content
Abstract
One sector that is significantly impacted by climate change is the agricultural sector. Regardless of location, changes in climate have a profound influence on agriculture. This study examined the effects of climate change and productivity factors on maize yields in Nigeria. Data were obtained from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method of data analysis was employed to test for long-run relationships among the variables. The results showed that temperature (TEMP), rainfall (RF), labor force (LF), capital stock (CS), and availability of fertilizer (AF) were statistically significant at the 5% level and had positive effects on maize yield. Based on these findings, the paper concludes that maize yield in Nigeria is significantly influenced by temperature, rainfall, labor force, capital stock, and fertilizer availability. The study recommends that, given the statistically insignificant effects of government expenditure on agriculture (GEA) and credit to the agricultural sector, there is a strong need to reform agricultural budgeting and implementation strategies. Public spending should be more effectively targeted, while investments in training programs and mechanization instruments for rural workers should be prioritized. Lastly, future research should employ mixed-methods approaches combining quantitative econometric modeling with qualitative insights to better explain how farmers perceive and respond to climate impacts.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Adeagbo, O., Ojo, T., & Adetoro, A. (2021). Understanding the determinants of climate change adaptation strategies among smallholder maize farmers in south-west, Nigeria. Heliyon, 7(2), e06231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06231
Akintibu, T., Oluwaranti, A., & Fakorede, M. (2023). The impacts of climatic variability on the grain yield performance of open pollinated varieties (OPV) of maize in a rainforest location of Nigeria. Journal of Agriculture and Ecology Research International, 24(5), 28–36. https://doi.org/10.9734/jaeri/2023/v24i5539
Budnukaeku, A., & Emmanuel, O. (2024). Historical analysis of climate variability and agricultural production in Nigeria (1931–2020). Climate Change, 10(28), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.54905/disssi.v10i28.e8cc1039
FAO. (2021). Nigeria at a glance: Agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/nigeria/
FAO. (2023). The state of food and agriculture 2023: Revealing the true cost of food to transform agrifood systems. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb9721en
Hazzan, O., Lawal, O., Elendu, C., Abdulraheem, M., & Pei-Gao, D. (2023). Modelling maize yield vulnerability to climate variability. Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management, 13(2). https://doi.org/10.5595/001c.91437
Ibrahim, I. M., & Adeyemi, O. O. (2025). Measuring the Effect of Climate Change and Productivity Factors on Cassava Production in Nigeria: ARDL Approach (1990-2023). African Journal of Agricultural Science and Food Research, 19(1), 65-81. https://doi.org/10.62154/ajasfr.2025.019.01015
IPCC. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844
Nkemnole, E. B., & Adoghe, V. (2023). A comparison between long short-term memory and hidden Markov model to predict productivity of maize in Nigeria. arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2305.17613
Obianefo, C., Chinwe, I., Umebali, E., & Chinwe, A. (2024). A stochastic frontier analysis of maize production efficiency and its climate-smart agricultural practice determinants in southeast, Nigeria. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Comprehensive Research, 3(2), 50–61. https://doi.org/10.54660/ijmcr.2024.3.2.50-61
Obianefo, C., Ezeano, I., Okoroji, N., & Offiah, E. (2022). Estimation of productivity yield gap contributions of climate change variability in selected horticultural crops (fresh maize and okra) in Anambra State, Nigeria. International Journal of Science and Technology Research Archive, 3(1), 016–030. https://doi.org/10.53771/ijstra.2022.3.1.0057
Olasehinde, D., Adeniran, K., Ogunrinde, A., Abioye, O., & Okunola, A. (2024). Assessment of selected agroclimatic indices on maize yield forecasting under climate change in Nigeria. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1342(1), 012033. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1342/1/012033
Olumide, A. (2024). Effect of climate change on crop yield in Nigeria. International Journal of Agriculture, 9(2), 24–34. https://doi.org/10.47604/ija.2662
Oyekunle, M., Adamu, R., Ndou, E., Beyene, Y., Abdulmalik, M., & Oikeh, S. (2023). Efficacy of drought-tolerant and insect-protected transgenic TELA® maize traits in Nigeria. Transgenic Research, 32(3), 169–178. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11248-023-00345-x
Oyetunde‐Usman, Z., & Shee, A. (2023). Adoption of drought-tolerant maize varieties and interrelated climate-smart agricultural practices in Nigeria. Agriculture & Food Security, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-023-00429-1
Tajudeen, T., Omotayo, A., Ogundele, F., & Rathbun, L. (2022). The effect of climate change on food crop production in Lagos State. Foods, 11(24), 3987. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11243987
Tofa, A., Kamara, A., Babaji, B., Adnan, A., Ademulegun, T., & Bebeley, J. (2023). Evaluating the use of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization as crop management options for maize adaptation to climate change in the Nigeria savannas. Environmental Research Communications, 5(5), 055001. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/accfed
Tofa, A., Kamara, A., Babaji, B., Akinseye, F., & Bebeley, J. (2021). Assessing the use of a drought-tolerant variety as adaptation strategy for maize production under climate change in the savannas of Nigeria. Scientific Reports, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88277-6
Article Sidebar
