Bridging Africa’s Power Gap: The Role of Renewable Energy in an Era of Electricity Reforms
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Abstract
This study examined how renewable electricity penetration improves power sector reliability in Sub-Saharan Africa and evaluates the moderating role of electricity sector reforms in shaping this relationship. Despite substantial investments in renewable energy across the region, power systems remain fragile, raising concerns about whether renewable expansion alone can enhance reliability without complementary institutional reforms. Using panel data for 49 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2022, the study employed logistic regression to estimate the probability of power sector fragility and OLS models for robustness, complemented by interaction and threshold analysis to capture non-linear effects. The results showed that higher GDP per capita significantly reduces the likelihood of power fragility. Renewable electricity penetration, when considered independently, does not significantly improve reliability; however, its interaction with regulatory reforms reveals a statistically significant reduction in fragility in reform-oriented systems. Furthermore, the relationship between renewable penetration and fragility is non-linear: countries with renewable shares between 30–50 percent exhibit the lowest probability of fragility, whereas extremely high renewable shares are associated with increased instability, likely reflecting integration and grid management constraints. The findings suggest that renewable expansion alone is insufficient to ensure reliability; institutional reforms that strengthen regulatory quality and investment efficiency are critical. Policymakers should therefore prioritize coordinated reform strategies alongside renewable deployment to enhance power system stability in the region.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Eseosa Joy Sowemimo, Patricia Ajayi (Author)
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